Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.407086 0.465934 0.529769 0.604089 0.688168 0.780270 0.888735
2025-08-03 0.334911 0.416054 0.510912 0.629720 0.774261 0.944110 1.158537
2025-08-10 0.262147 0.351577 0.463657 0.613820 0.809063 1.053578 1.382203
2025-08-17 0.203341 0.293430 0.414064 0.586310 0.824658 1.141361 1.592339
2025-08-24 0.165111 0.255347 0.383944 0.578818 0.864512 1.265401 1.867274
2025-08-31 0.134846 0.222821 0.355852 0.569115 0.899195 1.386528 2.154987
2025-09-07 0.116218 0.204310 0.345079 0.582808 0.969569 1.567745 2.554011
2025-09-14 0.094520 0.176672 0.315285 0.561622 0.982327 1.662930 2.834361
2025-09-21 0.079466 0.157413 0.295853 0.553939 1.015116 1.792953 3.185889
2025-09-28 0.066735 0.139834 0.276239 0.542460 1.039140 1.910631 3.530796
2025-10-05 0.059958 0.132268 0.273419 0.560610 1.117693 2.130507 4.077549
2025-10-12 0.052222 0.121242 0.262114 0.560726 1.162496 2.295121 4.544545
2025-10-19 0.046424 0.113485 0.256629 0.572753 1.234481 2.523460 5.167051
2025-10-26 0.041638 0.107024 0.252787 0.587685 1.314761 2.778307 5.873308
2025-11-02 0.034825 0.094384 0.233362 0.566175 1.316719 2.879857 6.291853
2025-11-09 0.028619 0.081819 0.211777 0.536125 1.295736 2.931967 6.616782
2025-11-16 0.024591 0.073923 0.199711 0.525987 1.317359 3.075902 7.151668
2025-11-23 0.021132 0.066745 0.188057 0.514806 1.334823 3.212859 7.688218
2025-11-30 0.019157 0.063317 0.185365 0.525548 1.406052 3.478258 8.541261
2025-12-07 0.016195 0.056228 0.171566 0.505133 1.397594 3.559958 8.985850
2025-12-14 0.014129 0.051393 0.163043 0.497321 1.419802 3.716289 9.622989
2025-12-21 0.012253 0.046691 0.153966 0.486341 1.431986 3.849629 10.220397
2025-12-28 0.011399 0.045235 0.154265 0.502258 1.518770 4.177809 11.331925